As the rainy season sets in, the Federal Government on Wednesday unveiled the 2026 Annual Flood Outlook (AFO), warning that floods will impact Lagos, Bayelsa, Delta, Adamawa, Kebbi and 28 other states across the country.
The disclosure was made by the Minister of Water Resources and Sanitation, Joseph Utsev, during the public presentation of the AFO at the Presidential Banquet Hall in Abuja.
The event, organised by the Nigeria Hydrological Services Agency (NiHSA), was themed “Smart Water Resources Management: Moving from Oil to Water-Based Economy.
Utsev emphasised the critical role of early warning systems, noting that timely information saves lives, protects livelihoods, safeguards infrastructure, and reduces economic losses.
He added that the Federal Government is modernising the nation’s hydrological monitoring networks to strengthen flood forecasting and preparedness.
He also highlighted ongoing collaboration with the Nigerian Meteorological Agency (NiMet), aimed at integrating weather and water data for more reliable forecasts to support farmers, disaster managers, urban planners and other stakeholders.
Describing the AFO as more than a scientific document, the minister called it “a national call to action,” stressing that forecasts must translate into concrete preparedness measures at the community level. He assured that the ministry is working closely with relevant agencies to mitigate flood impacts nationwide.
The event was attended by President Bola Tinubu, represented by the Minister of Environment, Balarabe Lawal, alongside representatives from key federal ministries, the National Assembly, state governments, service chiefs, development partners and the media.
According to Utsev, the 2026 forecast identifies:
High Flood Risk: 14,118 communities across 266 Local Government Areas (LGAs) in 33 states and the Federal Capital Territory.
Moderate Flood Risk: 15,597 communities in 405 LGAs across 35 states.
Low Flood Risk: 923 communities in 77 LGAs across 24 states.
He further warned of likely flash and urban flooding in major cities including Abuja, Lagos, Ibadan, Port Harcourt, Kano and Makurdi, largely due to intense rainfall, poor drainage systems and inadequate flood-control infrastructure.
Coastal and riverine flooding is also expected in Bayelsa, Cross River, Delta, Lagos, Ogun, Rivers and Ondo states as a result of rising sea levels and tidal surges, posing risks to fishing, wildlife and river navigation.
“As we transition toward a water-based economy, we must recognise that water security is national security,” Utsev said, stressing the importance of effective water governance in achieving food security, economic diversification and improved living standards.
He urged state governments, local authorities, and communities to incorporate flood risk into land-use planning, strengthen drainage systems, and adopt proactive adaptation strategies.
Preparedness remains the most effective strategy for reducing flood risks. When we plan ahead, we protect lives, safeguard infrastructure, and preserve economic gains,” he added.
In his remarks, the Director-General of NiHSA, Umar Ibrahim Mohammed, described the AFO as a vital national planning tool that has evolved into a comprehensive flood risk intelligence system.
He revealed that the 2026 outlook was developed using a Hybrid AI Integrated Modelling system to improve accuracy, reduce false alarms and enhance early warning timelines. He also noted that the process was conducted entirely in-house, marking a significant step in capacity development.
Mohammed added that NiHSA has upgraded its Flood Dashboard into a full-scale decision-support geo-intelligence platform, complemented by a mobile application for real-time access to flood alerts and data.
The Director-General of NiMet, Prof. Charles Anosike, acknowledged the persistent challenge of flooding in Nigeria and across Africa but expressed optimism that improved technology and inter-agency collaboration would strengthen mitigation efforts.
He reaffirmed NiMet’s commitment to working with NiHSA to enhance predictive capabilities and called for a renewed national focus on water resource management as a cornerstone of sustainable development.
