*Surpasses four years revenue
Gross revenue shared by the three tiers of government rose to N31.46tn in the first nine months of 2026, exceeding the full-year collections recorded in four of the previous five years, according to a new report by Agora Policy.
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The report, titled ‘Ten Insights from FAAC Disbursements for January–September 2026’, showed that the Federation Account Allocation Committee (FAAC) generated N31.46tn between January and September, surpassing the N28.74tn recorded in the whole of 2024 and approaching the N35.81tn collected in 2025.
The latest figures underline substantial growth in government revenue in nominal terms, although the report warned that collections remained volatile, growth was slowing and mineral revenue was significantly below budget.
The report, obtained on Wednesday, said the Federal Government received about N7.35tn from the distributions during the nine-month period, while state governments received N7.01tn and local governments got N4.92tn.
The report stated, “The Federation Account Allocation Committee has completed the distribution of revenue for January to September 2026, following its October meeting. The figures show continued nominal revenue growth, but also volatile monthly receipts and a substantial shortfall in mineral revenue against budget. This analysis examines the sources of revenue, deductions and allocations across the three tiers of government, and considers the implications for fiscal planning and public services.”
According to the report, gross FAAC revenue for January to September 2026 totalled N31.46tn, with statutory revenue contributing N24.25tn, or 77.1 per cent.
Value Added Tax (VAT) contributed N7.21tn, representing 22.9 per cent of the total gross revenue.
The report further stated, “Of the gross revenue, N20.36 trillion, or 65 per cent, was available for distribution before augmentation. The remaining N11.10tn, or 35 per cent, was deducted for savings, interventions, refunds, transfers and collection costs.”
It revealed that oil-producing states received N1.53tn under the 13 per cent derivation principle, which allocates a share of oil revenue to the states from which the resources are extracted. The derivation allocation is reported separately but also accrues to state governments.
The report put total distributions, including a N450bn augmentation, at N20.81tn. This comprised the N20.36tn available for distribution before the augmentation.
However, deductions from gross revenue amounted to N11.10tn, representing 35 per cent of total receipts. The deductions covered savings, interventions, refunds, transfers and collection costs.
Statutory revenue accounted for N24.25tn, or 77.1 per cent of the N31.46tn gross receipts, while VAT contributed N7.21tn, representing 22.9 per cent.
The report noted that the nine-month revenue figure was 240.8 per cent above the full-year total of N9.23tn recorded in 2021, 154.5 per cent above the N12.34tn recorded in 2022, 93.2 per cent above the N16.28tn generated in 2023 and 9.5 per cent above the N28.74tn collected in 2024.
It, however, cautioned that the figures were nominal and did not account for inflation or changes in the purchasing power of the naira.
According to Agora Policy, gross revenue increased by N3.51tn, or 12.6 per cent, from N27.95tn in January to September 2025 to N31.46tn in the corresponding period of 2026.
Although revenue continued to rise, the pace of growth was slowing. The N3.51tn increase recorded in the first nine months of 2026 was less than half the N8.97tn increase recorded in the corresponding period of 2024.
The report said the sharp increase in revenue in 2024 followed the foreign exchange and petrol subsidy reforms introduced in 2023, which provided a plausible explanation for part of the rise in naira receipts.
It added that tax reform implementation and higher oil prices associated with the conflict in Iran might also have supported revenue in 2026, although aggregate figures alone could not establish the contribution of each factor.
The report said average monthly revenue in the first nine months of 2026 stood at N3.50tn, compared with N2.98tn over the whole of 2025.
Providing a historical overview, it stated, “Gross FAAC revenue for the full year rose from N9.23tn in 2021 to N35.81tn in 2025. The largest annual increase occurred in 2024, when revenue rose by 76.5 per cent from N16.28tn in 2023 to N28.74tn in 2024.
“By September 2026, cumulative revenue of N31.46tn had exceeded the full-year totals for 2021, 2022, 2023 and 2024, and reached approximately 88 per cent of the 2025 total.
“The 2026 nine-month figure was 240.8 per cent above the 2021 annual total, 154.5 per cent above 2022’s, 93.2 per cent above 2023’s and 9.5 per cent above 2024’s. It should be borne in mind that these changes are in nominal terms, and not like-for-like measures of annual growth or purchasing power.”
The report added that if the nine-month pace continued, full-year gross revenue would reach approximately N41.95tn.
“If the nine-month pace continues, full-year gross revenue would reach approximately N41.95 trillion. This is a simple annualisation, not a forecast, as averages do not take account of seasonal revenue peaks,” it added.
The report also cautioned that changes in crude oil prices and the exchange rate could increase or reduce receipts in the remaining months of the year.
