*Beats Atiku, Tinubu in 4 zones
With the 2023 presidential election gaining momentum, a new opinion poll released Monday has again put the candidate of the Labour Party (LP), Mr Peter Obi, ahead of other contestants, polling 51 per cent of registered voters’ support.
The poll was conducted on a cross section of the registered voters by We2Geda Foundation to deepen the conversation about the country’s 2023 elections and to help political analysts address critical issues such as candidate preferences and key socioeconomic dynamics at play in the upcoming elections.
We2Geda randomly surveyed a total of 15,438 registered voters in 36 states and the FCT.
This, it stated, was done entirely through fully randomised direct phone calls in local languages, to achieve real representation of registered voters across Nigeria.
Respondents came from across local governments and were stratified proportionally by key demographics, e.g. rural versus urban, gender and age.
A statement from the foundation signed by Ibrahim Abdulkareem Muna Obioha explained that the proportion of Nigerians polled from each state was equal to the state’s contribution to the national voters’ register, as published by INEC.
For instance, as Abia contributes 2.3 per cent of the national voters’ register, Abia also made up 2.3 per cent of respondents in the randomised poll.
The same process applied in every state, and polls within each state were 100 per cent randomised.
Respondents were asked structured questions to assess their opinion and preparation for the 2023 general elections.
Questions included: “Are you planning to vote? Have you picked up your PVC? What do you think are the top three issues/challenges you face in Nigeria?
“How important are the 2023 elections to you? Who and which party will you vote for in 2023?” among other things.
In addition, the survey uncovered the top issues deciding voters’ choices in the upcoming election, including the need to tackle insecurity (42 per cent), corruption (18 per cent), jobs (9 per cent) and education (8 per cent) likely related to the ASUU strike.
Nigerians aged between 26 and 40 years of age, and those between 41 and 50, constituted the highest number of respondents, with the latter higher by a slim margin.
The statement said, “The result of the WE2Geda (opinion) poll showed a clear lead for the Labour Party (LP) presidential flag-bearer, Mr Peter Obi, with 51 per cent of respondents suggesting voting for him as their preferred candidate if the presidential election were held today.”
Twenty-five per cent suggested voting for Alhaji Atiku Abubakar of the People’s Democratic Party (PDP), while Bola Tinubu of the All Progressives Congress (APC) ranked third in the voter preference poll with 19 per cent.
“Further analysis also shows that Peter Obi remained a consistent favourite in the four major geopolitical zones, including North-Central, South-South, South-West and South-East, while Alhaji Atiku Abubakar was the poll leader in the North-East and North-West zones.
“While these poll results show some significant trends, it is important to note that they do not include respondents who were undecided or did not reveal their preferred candidate.”
An earlier opinion poll commissioned by the ANAP foundation and conducted by NOI poll had similarly shown Obi in the lead.
Both APC and PDP leadership had dismissed previous polls as not being scientific enough.
