“If the people allow themselves to be silenced, free men will die screaming.” — Platonymous
As the German statesman Otto von Bismarck famously quipped, “Never believe anything in politics until it has been officially denied.” This adage is particularly relevant to the Nigerian political landscape, where ambiguity often prevails. The current EFCC events in Osun State, leading up to its off-cycle gubernatorial election on Saturday, August 15, 2026, perfectly illustrate this principle of political manoeuvring.
The tone of Saturday’s gubernatorial poll in Osun State was actually set long ago by President Bola Ahmed Tinubu himself in his two landmark political rhetorics: ‘snatch and run’ and ‘all is fair in politics’. Senator Francis Ade Fadahunsi’s kill-and-maim opponents and Sheikh Sani Jingir’s declaration of Christians as infidels were all imbibing the tutorial of the master himself. If you want to know why President Tinubu has more than a passing interest in Osun State politics, go back to a remark made a decade ago by the former Governor of Osun State, Olagunsoye Oyinlola, describing Tinubu in standard Yoruba language at a rally, saying, ‘Tinubu is an all-round fraud.
His birth is suspicious; his father is a fabrication; his mother is a fabrication; his age is a mystery; his origin is questionable. The next time you see him, tell him to show you his arms and belly. There are traditional tattoos depicting a lizard on his body. Those traditional markings are indigenous to us in Osun State, not to Lagos State, which he is dubiously claiming. Our forefathers have told us that anybody who denies his parentage is doomed. That is the trajectory of Bola Tinubu.
While Oyinlola’s prediction of doom for Tinubu has not materialised — indeed, Tinubu has achieved significant success in business and politics, culminating in his presidency of Nigeria — it raises a question about the kind of nation that enabled such a rise. But why not with curious character changes like this, two great critics of Tinubu’s rise without credentials in the past, Festus Keyamo, now a Minister in his government, the former EFCC boss Nuhu Ribadu, who once listed him among the most corrupt in the country, is now his National Security Adviser (NSA), and Daniel Bwala, now his spokesman, who in a dramatic U-turn, is today saying that great men go to university without primary and secondary education.
And even the same Oyinlola is preaching Tinubu’s positive message in Saturday’s Osun election; these developments say a lot about the high-stakes intrigues of Nigeria’s politics under the Jagaban command. The Osun State gubernatorial election, just 48 hours away, precedes President Tinubu’s own quest for a second term by a mere 154 days. It makes President Tinubu evidently concerned about the political repercussions of his party, the All Progressives Congress (APC), losing the Osun election, which is seen as a crucial preliminary to the 2027 poll.
The prospect of Governor Adeleke celebrating a victory, perhaps with his cousin, a renowned international artist, Davido, on the microphone and his uncle, Governor Adeleke, on the dance floor, would certainly represent a significant political setback for both Tinubu and the ruling APC — especially on the cusp of his own re-election campaign, potentially sending an unfavourable signal. The recent actions by the Economic and Financial Crimes Commission (EFCC) appear to be a calculated response from the President’s inner circle, likely stemming from his expressed need for control in Osun.
The coordinated efforts of key federal agencies — the Independent National Electoral Commission (INEC), the judiciary, the police, and the EFCC, all manned by ethnically Yoruba personnel — suggest a deliberate strategy. The initial indiscriminate arrests of Osun public servants, leading to the police commissioner’s swift transfer, followed by the EFCC’s freezing of the state accounts ten days before the election, seemingly aimed at hindering Governor Adeleke’s campaign and electoral prospects.
However, the subsequent so-called “embarrassment” of the President and the order to unfreeze the state accounts, mirroring the police commissioner’s transfer, suggest a staged intervention. These actions appear designed to distance the President from the initial manoeuvres, even though the entire sequence is reportedly orchestrated under his direction. In Nigeria’s political arena, gubernatorial elections held outside the main cycle are more than just regional contests; they serve as high-stakes rehearsals for national elections.
The involvement of the Nigeria Police, the judiciary, and the EFCC in the lead-up to the Osun election has provided a clear demonstration of federal influence, offering a preview of tactics that might be employed in 2027. For months, Osun’s state finances operated normally. Then, precisely ten days before the election, the EFCC, armed with a court order, froze the state’s primary salary accounts, citing concerns about illicit financial flows.
This action effectively aimed to disrupt Governor Adeleke’s campaign momentum at a critical juncture. It is difficult to ignore the optics of paralysing an entire state government’s financial operations on the eve of an election. This tactical move served as a test of how effectively an opposition administration’s payroll could be disrupted, political momentum curtailed, and public reaction to a state-sponsored economic freeze managed.
We are expected to accept that the timing was purely coincidental, with the EFCC claiming it was merely safeguarding public funds. Nevertheless, freezing the operational and payroll funds of a state government so close to an election resembles an attempt to silence a political opponent rather than routine law enforcement.
The subsequent phase involved a presidential intervention intended to enhance the President’s image. The President publicly expressed his “embarrassment” not at the EFCC’s actions themselves, but at their ill-timed execution. A phone call to Governor Adeleke and a directive to the EFCC to lift the freeze were presented as restoring executive decorum and safeguarding electoral fairness.
This orchestrated sequence allowed the EFCC to demonstrate its authority, the presidency to project itself as a protector of electoral integrity, and the public to witness a carefully crafted illusion. While Osun’s accounts were unfrozen, the underlying message about the efficacy of federal control and its potential application in 2027 is clear. The process highlights a remarkable interplay of democratic institutions — an agency acts with apparent independence, public outcry ensues, and the President intervenes as a rescuer. This cycle, though seemingly designed to uphold fairness, creates a compelling narrative.
Ultimately, Osun’s funds were restored, the EFCC showcased its capabilities, and voters observed a sophisticated display of political strategy. While the immediate situation was resolved, the underlying question of who truly dictates the political narrative remains. As Osun voters prepare to cast their ballots in 48 hours, the episode leaves a lingering question: in the high-stakes dance of Nigerian democracy, who is really calling the tune?
Before you go chastising anybody for their roles, note Niccolò Machiavelli’s view in “The Prince”—that “Men are so simple and so much inclined to obey immediate needs that a deceiver will never lack victims for his deceptions.” For Machiavelli, whose book ‘The Prince’ is the ‘Bible’ of every conscientious bad leader, from which Tinubu’s “all is fair in politics” and “snatch it and run” theories come, the ultimate philosophical guide to political intrigue is that leaders must learn how not to be good to maintain their position.
If Osun voters are aware of the enormity of the task before them on Saturday and they allow their mandates to be stolen, they should accept the views of America’s writer Joseph Campbell that “Your life is the fruit of your own doing; you have no one to blame but yourself.” God help us.
