*Peter Mba, Frank Nweke Jnr trail behind him
Afri Forcasts, a scientific research and opinion polling agency, Tuesday, published the results of its opinion poll on the likely winner of Saturday’s governorship election in Enugu State, with Barr. Chijioke Edeoga, of the Labour Party (LP), emerging as the winner.
The result which is published on the website of the group, www.afriforecasts.com, combined both telephone and online polling methods to get the responses of their respondents totalling 8,242 persons.
According to the report, Dr. Peter Mba of the Peoples Democratic Party (PDP), was the second preferred candidate, while Frank Nweke Jnr of the All Progressives Grand Alliance (APGA), came third, and Chief Uche Nnaji of the All Progressives Congress (APC), came fourth.
According to Afri Forecast: “From our survey, it is evident that the general mood of Enugu State is favourably disposed to a leadership headed by the Labour Party.
“This opinion is informed by the results of both the telephone interviews and the online polls that gave the candidate of the Labour Party a commanding lead over the other candidates.
“While some of the reasons for this preference are anchored on the Obidient Movement and the bandwagon effect that it has created, a large percentage of the potential voters believe in the capacity of the Labour Party candidate to deliver on the job”.
In presenting the report, the pollsters, who said they combined telephone calls and online polling methods to obtain the results gave the number of respondents interviewed via the telephone as 389, and 7,853 online voters.
They also stated: “Afri Forecasts employs Formal Quantitative methods in all its opinion polls. This method is a more systematic way of ascertaining public opinion, mainly because it involves the use of scholars who understand their proper – and improper – uses and who are less likely than politicians or other non-scholars to misuse them or misinterpret them as standing for mass public opinion when they do not. Quantitative methods involve numbers – usually statistics – and most credible public researches are conducted quantitatively.
“Precisely, our survey methodology involved two survey methods:
i. Random Telephone Interviews:
Question: We asked the interviewees on phone “Who amongst the following will you vote for in the March, 2023 gubernatorial election in Enugu”?
“The candidates and parties were given to the interviewees as options. “With the greatest respect to all the other fourteen (14) political parties and their candidates, it was only practical that we prune the pool, from which the interviewees were expected to choose from, to four (4) in order not to make it unwieldy.
“The candidates are: Uche Nnaji, All Progressives Congress (APC); Frank Nweke Jr, All Progressives Grand Alliance (APGA); Peter Mba, Peoples Democratic Party (PDP) and Chijioke Edeoga, Labour Party (LP)”.
They also ascribed 95% confidence level on the polling methodology they adopted while carrying out the polls, with 5% error margin as well.
Presenting details of the result, Afri Forecast presented the results of their telephone poll according to the senatorial zones.
They added, “Afri Forecasts employed Formal Quantitative methods in all its opinion polls.
“This method is a more systematic way of ascertaining public opinion, mainly because it involves the use of scholars who understand their proper – and improper – uses and who are less likely than politicians or other non-scholars to misuse them or misinterpret them as standing for mass public opinion when they do not.
“Quantitative methods involve numbers – usually statistics – and most credible public researches are conducted quantitatively”.
Based on the findings obtained via telephone, of the 122 persons interviewed from Enugu-West Senatorial zone, 53 (43.44%) said they would be voting for Chijioke Edeoga; 47 (38.52%) chose Peter Mba; 19 respondents (15.57%) voted for Frank Nweke Jr, while 3 (2.45%) chose Uche Nnaji as their preferred choices.
In Enugu-East, 135 persons were interviewed out of which 54 (40%) persons said they would be voting for Peter Mba; 51 (37.77%) for Chijioke Edeoga; 21 15.55% for Frank Nweke Jr, while 9 (6.66%) chose Uche Nnaji.
In Enugu North, 88 (66.66%) of the 132 respondents said they would be voting for Chijioke Edeoga; 35 (26.15%) chose Peter Mba of the PDP; 2 (1.51%) voted for Frank Nweke Jr, while Uche Nnaji got no support.
Afri Forecasts also said that in its online polls, 7,853 persons participated.
The result shows that Chijioke Edeoga (LP), polled 59.35%; Peter Mba (PDP), 25.49%; Frank Nweke Jnr (APGA), 10.0% and Uche Nnaji (APC), 5.12%.
According to the polling agency, some of the online voters dropped comments on why they made their choices.
They stated that 15% of the comments attributable to Edeoga’s supporters ssid they prefer him based on the need to “retire” the PDP from the politics of Enugu, they believe has underperformed in the 24 years it has been on the saddle in the State.
Another 21% of Edeoga said “the candidates of the PDP and APGA were products of the Ebeano, a political family they claimed was a violent family that should not be given another opportunity to come back to power.
“27% of those who commented in support of Chijioke Edeoga based their support on competence, citing his achievements as a federal lawmaker and as the SA to the President of Nigeria on National Assembly matters wherein they also claimed he was instrumental to the signing of the Freedom of Information Bill by the Jonathan administration”.
Details of the report is reproduced below:
INTRO:
This report is in two parts. The first part deals with the opinion poll conducted across the three (3) senatorial zones of Enugu State by Afri Forecasts to gauge the mood of the public as the electorates prepare to elect a new governor for the state on 18th March, 2023. The second part, which forms part of the first, is a product of our in-house analysis and findings reached from the voting patterns in both the telephone interviews and the online polls. Both the first and second parts, jointly put together, informed the final decision as contained in this report.
a. PART 1 – OPINION POLL
At exactly 1pm on Sunday, 12th March, 2023, Afri Forecasts began running a 3-day variegated opinion polls on the forth-coming gubernatorial elections in several states, including Enugu State. This report, which is one out of our several reports on the forth-coming gubernatorial contests in several states, centers solely on the Enugu opinion poll as conducted by Afri Forecasts. The poll terminated at 6pm on Tuesday, 14th March, 2023.
Just like all our pre-election opinion polls, this poll was conducted by Afri Forecasts as part of the firm’s undertakings in the build-up to the subnational elections in Nigeria to gauge the public preferences and potential voting behaviours as the elections approach. It was designed to represent the opinions of Enugu electorates by asking relevant questions on their choices of apex leadership in the State in March, 2023.
As democracy has been variously defined to mean a system that reflects the wishes of the generality of the people, our opinion polls are geared towards providing a guide to policymakers, political parties, the business community, political players and the general public on the choices of the people.
While we concede that elections – whether primary or general elections – are the most effective means by which public opinion can control the government and public policy, it is crucial to point out that elections are a blunt measure of public opinion. While elections, no doubts, determine who staffs the government, they are nonetheless not a precise method for determining public opinion. Results of elections hardly indicate why electorates voted one way or another. All that elections tell us about what the public wants is that they preferred one candidate over another – not why.
Conversely, a properly conducted opinion poll creates room for the voters to express their reasons why a particular candidate appeals to them over another. In all the opinion polls conducted by Afri Forecasts, we take this into cognizance as we make our voting process very interactive; we allow voters to drop their comments on why they make the choices they make. This is precisely why, in some cases, our polls are conducted even before political parties make their selections so as to ensure that their selections are made bearing in mind the wishes of the people. Such pre-party primary poll is a win-win situation for both political parties and the populace as it guides the party in picking candidates who can win elections for them, while at the same time fielding candidates that reflect the wishes of the people.
In the instant case, the parties’ primaries and the processes for the selection of candidates are long gone. As a result, our present poll centers more on understanding what political party and candidate the Enugu electorates prefer and why the preferences.
METHODOLOGY:
Afri Forecasts employs Formal Quantitative methods in all its opinion polls. This method is a more systematic way of ascertaining public opinion, mainly because it involves the use of scholars who understand their proper – and improper – uses and who are less likely than politicians or other non-scholars to misuse them or misinterpret them as standing for mass public opinion when they do not. Quantitative methods involve numbers – usually statistics – and most credible public researches are conducted quantitatively.
Precisely, our survey methodology involved two survey methods:
i. Random Telephone Interviews:
Question: We asked the interviewees on phone “Who amongst the following will you vote for in the March, 2023 gubernatorial election in Enugu”? The below candidates and parties were given to the interviewees as options. With the greatest respect to all the other fourteen (14) political parties and their candidates, it was only practical that we prune the pool, from which the interviewees were expected to choose from, to four (4) in order not to make it unwieldy. The candidates are:
1. Uche Nnaji – All Progressives Congress (APC)
2. Frank Nweke Jr – All Progressives Grand Alliance (APGA)
3. Peter Mba – Peoples Democratic Party (PDP)
4. Chijioke Edeoga – Labour Party (LP)
Between 12th March, 2023 and 14th March, 2023 when the polls ended, we randomly, on the phone, interviewed a total of 389 persons, who were between the average ages of 19 and 70, across the three (3) senatorial districts of the State.
ii. Online Opinion Poll:
In addition to our telephone interviews, we conducted online opinion poll that had a statewide audience and participation. The poll which was widely advertised on all our social media platforms and other platforms was conducted in our website @ www.afriforecasts.com and it began at 1pm on Sunday, 12th March, 2023 and terminated at 6pm on Tuesday, 14th March, 2023.
The online poll had the following safeguard features that ensured the integrity of the process:
i. The poll has a comment section wherein voters are urged to drop comments on why they voted one way or another. Though we made this section optional, it was amazing how a large number of voters made efforts to drop comments on the reasons why they voted for the candidates of their choices.
ii. In a bid to protect the integrity of our polls, our site is highly secure and protected to avoid being hacked by online hackers who may wish to try to change the wishes of the voting public.
iii. The Poll is designed to ensure that one voter cannot vote twice with one device or one IP address.
iv. In the unlikely event that a clever voter succeeds in using one IP address to vote multiple times, our system is built or designed to detect and sieve through the votes to ensure that multiple votes from a single IP address are detected and invalidated.
v. The poll had a duration and automatic counter that ensured that it automatically wound up at 6pm on Tuesday, 14th March, 2023.
SURVEY PATTERNS
1. TELEPHONE INTERVIEW RESULTS.
As indicated above, between 1pm on Sunday, 12th March, 2023 and 6pm on Tuesday, 14th March, 2023, when the polls ended, we randomly, on the phone, interviewed a total of 389 persons across the three (3) senatorial districts of Enugu who were between the average ages of 19 and 70. Of the 389 interviewees, 138 were young male adults between the average ages of 19 and 40, while 71 were young female adults in the same age bracket. The male adults between 41 and 70 were 83 in number while the female adults in the same age bracket were 97 in number. Of the 138 young male adults, 103 said they had their PVCs, representing 74% of the young adults interviewed. Similarly, of the 71 young female adults interviewed, 49 said they had their PVCs, representing 69% of the number. Again, of the 83 male adults between 41 and 70 years interviewed, 77 of them had their PVCs, representing about 92% of the number; and finally, of the 97 female adults aged between 41 and 70 interviewed, 66 of them, representing about 68% of the number, had their PVCs.
Note that notwithstanding the ineligibility of the interviewees without their PVCs to vote, they nonetheless expressed their preferences for candidates of their choices. Similarly, the 73% of the interviewees who said they had their PVCs expressed willingness to cast their votes on the Election Day. The import of this, therefore, is that our survey captured a very high percentage of the actual eligible voters who expressed readiness to vote for the candidates of their choices on the day of the election.
This segment of our report, therefore, is based on the statements of the total number of 389 people – cutting across the three senatorial districts of Enugu State and cutting across various age brackets and gender – who volunteered information on their choices of candidates.
ENUGU WEST SENATORIAL ZONE TELEPHONE INTERVIEW RESULT
Question: Who amongst the following will you vote for in the March, 2023 gubernatorial election in Enugu? (Note: This question was posed in both Igbo and English)
On the issue of their preferred candidates, 122 of the interviewed persons are from Enugu West Senatorial District and 53 of that number said they would be voting for Chijioke Edeoga of LP, 47 said they would be voting for Peter Mba of the PDP, 19 said they would vote for Frank Nweke Jr of APGA, while 3 said Uche Nnaji of the APC was their preferred choice.
The total result of the Enugu West telephone interviews is shown graphically in percentage thus: Chijioke Edeoga (LP), 43.44%; Peter Mbah (PDP), 38.52%; Frank Nweke Jnr (APGA), 15.57%; Uche Nnaji (APC), 2.45%.
ENUGU EAST SENATORIAL ZONE TELEPHONE INTERVIEW RESULT
Question: Who amongst the following will you vote for in the March, 2023 gubernatorial election in Enugu? (Note: This question was posed in both Igbo and English)
On the issue of their preferred candidates, 135 of the interviewed persons are from Enugu East Senatorial District and 54 of that number said they would be voting for Peter Mba; 51 said they would be voting for Chijioke Edeoga; 21 said they would vote for Frank Nweke Jr while 9 said Uche Nnaji was their preferred choice.
The total result of the Enugu East telephone interviews is shown graphically in percentage thus: Peter Mbah (PDP), 40%; Chijioke Edeoga (LP), 37.77%; Frank Nweke Jnr (APGA),15.55%; Uche Nnaji (APC), 6.66%
ENUGU NORTH SENATORIAL ZONE TELEPHONE INTERVIEW RESULT
Question: Who amongst the following will you vote for in the March, 2023 gubernatorial election in Enugu? (Note: This question was posed in both Igbo and English)
On the issue of their preferred candidates, 132 of the interviewed persons are from Enugu North Senatorial District and 88 of that number said they would be voting for Chijioke Edeoga of the Labour Party; 35 persons said they would be voting for Peter Mba of the PDP; 2 people expressed willingness to cast their votes for Frank Nweke Jr of APGA; 4 people were undecided; 3 people preferred not to disclose their choices while Uche Nnaji did not get any mention.
The total result of the Enugu North telephone interviews is shown graphically in percentage form thus: Chijioke Edeoga (LP), 66.66%; Peter Mbah (PDP), 26.15%; Unspecified, 3.03%; non-disclosure, 2.27%; Frank Nweke Jnr (APGA), 1.51%; Uche Nnaji (APC), 0%
2. ONLINE OPINION POLL RESULT
As already indicated earlier, in addition to our telephone interviews, we also conducted online opinion poll that had a statewide audience and participation. The poll which was widely advertised on all our social media platforms and other platforms was conducted in our website @ www.afriforecasts.com and it began at 1pm on Sunday, 12th March, 2023 and terminated at 6pm on Tuesday, 14th March, 2023.
The online poll question runs thus: Who amongst the following will you vote for in the March, 2023 gubernatorial election in Enugu?
As already indicated in the Methodology, we listed the below candidates and their parties from where the voters made their choices:
1. Uche Nnaji – All Progressives Congress (APC)
2. Frank Nweke Jr – All Progressives Grand Alliance (APGA)
3. Peter Mba – Peoples Democratic Party (PDP)
4. Chijioke Edeoga – Labour Party (LP)
TOTAL NUMBER OF VOTERS:
A total number of 7,853 persons participated and voted for candidates of their choices in the online poll. However, unlike the telephone interviews, our online platform is not able to establish from which senatorial districts the online voters voted from. However, evidentially, most of the voters were certainly persons who would be eligible to participate in the forthcoming Enugu gubernatorial poll. This claim is supported by the comments dropped by the voters in our comment section. Again, the poll was mainly advertised in social media platforms that had clusters of Enugu indigenes and residents.
We can therefore undoubtedly say with 95% confidence that the results obtained are statistically accurate – within a range of plus or minus 5 percent.
The online poll result is shown thus: Chijioke Edeoga (LP), 59.35%; Peter Mba (PDP), 25.49%; Frank Nweke Jnr (APGA), 10.0%; Uche Nnaji (APC), 5.12%.
b. PART 2 – ANALYSIS & FINDINGS
Of the 7,853 online voters, a total of 467 participants dropped comments on why they voted the way they did and below are some of the observations from the comments of the commenters:
REASONS WHY SOME VOTERS VOTED THE WAY THEY DID
The below analysis may not represent a wider reason for the pattern of voting, especially as a greater percentage of the voters did not drop comments to indicate the reason for their choices, it however offers a sense of direction on why the voters voted the way they did.
i. CHIJIOKE EDEOGA:
a. 15% of the comments attributable to Edeoga’s supporters based their support for him on the need to “retire” the PDP from the politics of Enugu. They believe that PDP has underperformed in the 24 years it has been on the saddle in the State hence the need to change them.
b. Another 21% of those who volunteered comments said they voted for Edeoga because the candidates of the PDP and APGA were products of the Ebeano, a political family they claimed was a violent family that should not be given another opportunity to come back to power.
c. The PDP candidate, in particular, received the censure of another 19% of the Edeoga voters who commented, claiming that the PDP flag bearer is a product of “a failed and discredited Ugwuanyi administration” and therefore should not be allowed anywhere near power.
d. 27% of those who commented in support of Chijioke Edeoga based their support on competence, citing his achievements as a federal lawmaker wherein he was credited with the pioneering of the office of the House of Representatives of Nigeria and citing also his achievements as the SA to the president of Nigeria on National Assembly matters wherein they also claimed he was instrumental to the signing of the Freedom of Information Bill by the Jonathan administration.
e. Another 16% of the Edeoga commenters based their support for him on the need to maintain the Obidient Movement founded by Peter Obi, the presidential candidate of the Labour Party in the just-concluded presidential election. For this set of people, the driving force is Labour Party, and nothing more.
f. Finally, there are a minute 2% of the commenters who feel that Mba had been indicted by the law enforcement agents on account of corruption and therefore should not be trusted with power. They cited corruption cases involving his former principal, Chimaroke Nnamani, wherein they claimed Mba was conspicuously fingered.
ii. PETER MBA:
a. 28% of those commented in support of Peter Mba of the PDP believe he is the most qualified amongst the pack. They cited his achievements in the private sector and believe that if given the opportunity to administer the State he would turn things around for the better.
b. 41% of the commenters in favour of the PDP candidate believe it is the turn of his Nkanu clan to produce the next governor of the state. Most of the commenters in this category believe that any attempt to vote another candidate outside of the Nkanu clan would distort the rotational arrangement, and by extension, the peace in place in the State. Even though some of the commenters conceded that the candidate of the Labour Party (who most of the commenters believe was the one distorting the rotation) is from the Enugu East senatorial district, the zone laying claims to the governorship seat based on an unwritten rotation principle, they nonetheless believe he is culturally aligned to Enugu North senatorial district.
c. Another 25% of the commenters believe Peter Mba should be voted for because the electorates should deemphasize the issue of party affiliations. According to this group of commenters, the Obidient Movement had ended with the presidential election hence people should be allowed to vote their choices.
iii. FRANK NWEKE JR:
100% of the commenters who claim that they would vote for the candidate of APGA also claim that he was the best man for the job, citing his achievements at both the
State and national without necessarily giving any concrete example of such achievements.
iv. UCHE NNAJI:
None of the commenters dropped any message on the candidate of the APC.
FINDINGS:
Both the telephone interviews and the online poll revealed a number of interesting realities in the Enugu political landscape. Some of the findings are as follows:
a. The 7,853 online voter turnout is indicative of the level of political consciousness of the Enugu State electorates. It also indicates that a large percentage of the electorates have access to internet and are online. Even though there is need for improvement in terms of the numbers recorded, we must however concede that 7,853 is fairly high for a state or subnational opinion poll of this nature.
b. From our survey, it is evident that the general mood of Enugu State is favourably disposed to a leadership headed by the Labour Party. This opinion is informed by the results of both the telephone interviews and the online polls that gave the candidate of the Labour Party a commanding lead over the other candidates. While some of the reasons for this preference are anchored on the Obidient Movement and the bandwagon effect that it has created, a large percentage of the potential voters believe in the capacity of the Labour Party candidate to deliver on the job.
c. While most of the telephone interviewees freely expressed their willingness to vote and freely volunteered information on the candidates of their choices, a very minute number of persons, as already indicated above, especially in Enugu North senatorial district, were either undecided and who to cast their votes for or refused to disclose the candidates of their choices. Though this is a negligible number, it is inexplicable why it was only recorded in only one senatorial district.
REMARK:
While conceding that this survey, just like all surveys, might not have recorded 100% accuracy, especially given our inability to establish with accuracy from where the online voters voted from, we can indisputably say with 95% confidence that the results obtained herein are statistically accurate – within a range of plus or minus 5 percent.
DISCLAIMER
This report, information contained herein and additional materials are products of thorough, genuine, in-depth and professional survey, research work, analysis and interviews conducted by Afri Forecasts in line with the industry best practice. They have been provided to the public on an “as is” basis without warranty – implied or otherwise – to the accuracy, consistency or thoroughness about Afri Forecasts and expressed as of the date hereof.
©Afri Forecasts.
Tuesday, 14th March, 2023
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