*It’s either Obi vs Atiku or Obi vs Tinubu, the polling agency stated
*Says Obi has the highest net favourability among Nigerian voters
Nigeria’s February 25 presidential election is set for a run-off with Peter Obi of the Labour Party, and either Atiku Abubakar of the Peoples Democratic Party (PDP) or Bola Tinubu of the All Progressives Congress (APC), says the latest poll conducted by Nextier across the country.
Analysis of the poll results from the public policy think-tank released on Saturday showed that “no presidential candidate currently looks able to meet the criteria for outright victory (absolute majority of votes cast and 25 percent in two-thirds of the states in the first round)”.
The poll involved face-to-face interviews with 3,000 Nigerians in urban and rural areas of the 36 States of the Federation and Federal Capital Territory (FCT) who have obtained their Permanent Voters Cards, with 72 percent of respondents having made up their mind on their preferred party.
All age and gender demographics were represented in each of the States, and not less than 77 percent of respondents indicate that they ‘will vote’ while 63 percent are “definite” about it.
According to Nextier, the respondents were asked to select their preferred party using the party logo, while only one question on “favourability” polled with the candidates’ names. A sample of 3,000 generates a margin of error of two percent at a 95 percent confidence interval, it also explained.
The poll results concluded that “Peter Obi has the highest net favourability amongst the top presidential candidates while Labour Party has the highest net favourability amongst the top political parties. Net favourability is calculated as each candidate’s favourable rating less their unfavourable rating.
“Labour Party leads with 37 percent followed by PDP (27 percent) and APC (24 percent). However, Labour is unlikely to secure 25 percent of the votes cast in two-thirds of the states.
“This poll shows that it can achieve 25 percent in 23 states. The party is lagging in the North West region (except for Kaduna and Katsina states) and in the North East regions (except for Adamawa and Taraba states).”
Further analysis of the poll shows that 69.8 percent of survey respondents feel that Nigeria “is moving in the wrong direction”, with the main challenges being insecurity, unemployment, the economy, and corruption.
“With such high intention-to-vote, voter turnout looks to be significantly higher than four years ago. However, turnout could be depressed by a combination of insecurity, concern about the freedom and fairness of the election and concern about INEC.
“Eight out of 10 respondents stated – in their words – that there is no person or thing that would make them change their preferred party before the elections.
“Radio and WhatsApp will be the key communication channels for political parties ahead of Election Day”, Nextier added while explaining the survey results.
