By Hakeem Baba-Ahmed

‘It always seems impossible until it is done’. Nelson Mandela.

It is here. The year many of expect  will  signal a  great  turning point for their political ambitions or for their communities or the country.Others approach it with great foreboding.Will it be the year we sink completely, or one  in which we  commence a  re-floating process?There is a huge part of the population  that cannot be convinced that this will  not just be a continuation of the last few years, or worse.They have no faith that those who designed the political process as a mechanism for positively  changing lives had them in mind.

Actually, except for the switching of calendars 2023, AD is just 2022 plus a few more days. Life does not get segmented easily into periods.But it does help to plan ahead, even if your plans are miles from how you designed them to be.Eight years ago, I was neck deep in plans and anticipation that we were on a trajectory of retrieving our country from the drift, waste and incompetence of the Jonathan administration. Not even the worst enemy of Nigeria could have dared to locate the population where it is today. By the time the elections were over with Buhari’s victory, we were gloating at a dubious US-origin report that predicted that Nigeria will break up  in 2015. Unless a US Military Officer training  institution had a combination of intelligence and technological capacities that could wind  up a country of 200 million people, we felt we were too tough for doomsdayers. Eight years down the road, there are some who think the scenario-builders only got the date wrong, not the substance.

2015. 2023.Eight years with profound lessons in history.If our academics were not too busy scraping for a living, ASUU was not engaging in its  annual muscle-flexing as education’s self-appointed  lone hero, chroniclers  had not  abandoned the invaluable task of  capturing moments of great triumphs or failures, our libraries will be bursting with volumes on  failures to exercise powers, the pivotal role of leaders in lives of citizens, and that  fallacy that pain and deprivation alone will  make politicians and people wiser. In eight years we experienced  the bad and the  worst, and what do we have to show for it?We are  retreating into ethnic and religious bunkers, led by Buhari’s age mates and in many ways integral parts of the past we love to lament.We seek seek to build a new house with broken blocks and rotten straws.

Politicians and  supporters will be justified in thinking this is an unfair assessment of the tasks before them, (although they will take comfort from knowing that we have to elect one of the ,warts and all). Not all of us can afford to be charitable, however. They should also raise their heads from  the bitter civil wars and the bewildering array of crises in which they are involved. Atiku and PDP cannot appear to shake away the irritants in their rank, or whip them into line. They have multiple crises in many states that could do them serious damage. Their thinkers and strategies  are  too absorbed watching unfolding scandals and aged crises  that have festered or matured under the Buhari administration to persuade the nation that it is  the PDP, and not Buhari’s party that should get for a chance to sort the  the nation out. Eight years is not long enough to erase a national memory of the record and performance of a PDP whose sixteen years in power literally handed over the nation’s affairs  to a candidate  whose only credential was owning two houses, a few cows and his personal ambition to be President.

Buhari and Tinubu’s party’s heaviest burden is its inability to distance itself from his old lamentable records in managing national security, the economy and diversity.If Buhari had vowed to make sure that an APC party flag does not get  anywhere near the Villa after May 28th, 2023, he could not  have designed a better strategy than  dumping a whole set of fresh scandals and controversies weighing trillions of Naira  on the nation on his party’s chances of being trusted by Nigerians again. You will not hear a single voice raised from an APC campaign team demanding a rigorous scrutiny of the scandals around the CBN, rebelling party legislators, the run-away insecurity in South East, scandalous fuel queues or any of the issues that only a Buhari administration will roll out almost at will. It is difficult to roll out a new mat on muck and pretend that the visitor does not notice. A strategy that completely ignores APC’s  dismal record could work if the party does not have to fight and win on many fronts: nagging questions about  Tinubu’s physical and mental capacities, a stubborn religion-based resistance, strong barricades in the South East, a seeming reluctance by President Buhari to lay the red carpet for Tinubu from the battle for the ticket to the Villa, APC Governors looking around for more comfortable post-office life and a campaign with an unhealthy reliance on Tinubu’s bullion vans.

There are a few other parties which represent a glimmer of hope that we can relax the stranglehold of a ruling elite which has gradually degraded the quality of our democratic process. Peter Obi’s Labour Party would have made greater impact if he had earlier charted a course as a different politician and created greater distance from the titans that he is fighting today. His hardcore fanatical followers believe more in miracles than the routine trudging and hustling and negotiating  for votes. His primary constituency is wrought with multiple cross-cutting political interests, and he is unable to resolve a primary contradiction: his Presidency could end the Biafran cause, wiping out a lot of the beneficiaries of an idea whose essence can be found in every inch of Nigeria. His most formidable opposition is violence in the East, and it feeds a fairly skeptical  nation  which cannot understand why someone who wants to end Boko Haram, bandits, crude oil  thieves, cannot prevail on kinsmen to help his capacities by ending  organized violence in the South East. By far his biggest liability, though, is his supporters, many outside Nigeria, who insist that Obi can only lose a rigged election, and there is hell to pay if he is not President in May, 2023.

Then there is Kwankwaso, veteran, grassroots  politician who has been unable to outgrow a fanatical following. He could have been the biggest beneficiary of mergers and alliances, but  poor management of the volatile Kano politics and an exaggerated self-image always got in the way. Kola Abiola is daily being reminded of his father’s awesome political stature. Prince Adebayo will pick the trophy in a policy debate, but he has been dwarfed by the forces his ideas challenge.

It will be important for  our mental health to see both  opportunities and threats in the year 2023. The problem is that it has two many ifs. We could have an election if the government can improve electoral security. Millions may vote if government moves firmly against insecurity, particularly in the North West, South East and pockets of North East South West and North central. INEC’ innovations will produce a credible result if they work.

If the poverty of the people can be curbed, we could reduce the influence of money on choices. If losers accept results or  resort to the courts, we could avoid post-election violence.If winners show humility and move quickly to prioritize inclusiveness, we could transit to peaceful new administrations, if law enforcement agencies do their jobs well we can reduce friction. If the’ international community’ flexes its muscles, we can curb excesses of politicians. If enough Nigerian recognize that 2023 is genuinely make-or-break for our democracy or even survival of the country, we can survive as a nation. Happy New Year.

*Originally published in Vanguard