A new policy analysis has warned that Nigeria’s escalating banditry crisis is evolving into a self-reinforcing cycle driven by state fragility, weakening public trust, and growing influence of non-state armed groups.
The report, authored by policy analysts, Joshua Odey and Ndu Nwokolo, of public policy research group, Nextier, highlights how what began as a localised security challenge has transformed into a nationwide threat, spreading beyond the North-West into parts of the North-Central and North-East, including Niger, Benue, Plateau, and Taraba states.
Joshua Odey is a Policy and Research Analyst at Nextier: while Dr. Ndu Nwokolo is a Managing Partner at Nextier and a Reader (Associate Professor) at the Institute for Peace, Security and Development Studies, Nnamdi Azikiwe University, Awka, Nigeria. He is also a former Visiting Research Fellow at the Nathanson Centre on Transnational Human Rights, Crime, and Security at York University, Canada.
According to the 2026 security outlook by Nextier, Nigeria recorded 599 banditry incidents in 2025, resulting in 2,742 casualties. This marks a sharp rise from 256 incidents and 1,585 casualties in 2024 – representing a 134 per cent increase in attacks and a 74 per cent rise in deaths.
The report attributes the worsening crisis to deep structural weaknesses within the Nigerian state, including limited capacity to secure rural communities and enforce justice. These gaps, it notes, have created an enabling environment for armed groups to emerge and expand.
In many affected communities, citizens increasingly perceive the state as unable or unwilling to provide protection, leading to a breakdown in trust. Therefore, “as trust declines, communities resort to survival strategies such as negotiating with bandits, paying levies, or forming vigilante groups,” the report states, warning that such measures inadvertently strengthen armed groups and deepen insecurity.
The analysis describes the crisis as a “positive feedback loop,” where weak state response fuels insecurity, erodes legitimacy, and encourages further reliance on non-state actors. This cycle, it says, allows bandits to embed themselves within local communities and even gain a form of “functional relevance.”
A case in point cited in the report is the mass abduction at St. Mary’s Catholic College in Niger State, which occurred despite intelligence warnings. The incident underscored failures in communication and coordination between authorities, further undermining public confidence.
The report also points to the increasing “privatisation of security,” where communities under threat turn to self-help measures, including negotiations with criminal groups. Over time, this has normalised violence and weakened the authority of the state in affected regions.
Military efforts, while sometimes successful in dislodging bandits, have largely resulted in temporary gains. The fluid nature of armed groups—operating within civilian populations—complicates operations and increases the risk of civilian casualties, such as the accidental airstrike recorded in Zamfara State in June 2025.
To break the cycle, the authors recommend a shift from reactive military responses to a more comprehensive, human-centred security strategy. This includes prioritising civilian protection, improving coordination among security agencies, and investing in rural infrastructure and technology for early threat detection.
They also stress the importance of addressing underlying socioeconomic drivers such as poverty and unemployment, warning that without tackling these root causes, any security gains will remain short-lived.
“The persistence of banditry is not just a security failure but a governance crisis,” the report concludes, urging authorities to rebuild public trust and restore state legitimacy to achieve lasting peace.
