By James Adejo
Recently, I watched an interview with former Vice President Atiku Abubakar on an online television platform, where he expressed deep concerns about the ruling government’s intentions toward the African Democratic Congress (ADC). Atiku boldly claimed that the government is attempting to replicate its strategy for dismantling the Peoples Democratic Party (PDP) by manipulating the judiciary against the ADC. He urged Nigerians to remain vigilant to prevent this from happening.
Atiku’s allegations are not without merit. There’s a clear pattern emerging from President Tinubu’s camp aimed at stifling opposition and undermining key presidential aspirants like Peter Obi. However, the most striking thing that emerged from the public’s reaction in the comments section of the interview was the palpable disdain for Atiku’s deflection of blame.
Many commentators echoed the sentiment that, while Atiku aptly identifies the threat posed by Tinubu’s administration, he fails to accept his significant role in the decline of the PDP. Critics pointed out that Atiku’s own actions—particularly his mishandling of zoning—undoubtedly contributed to the party’s downfall. Even Nyesom Wike, the current FCT Minister, is a product of Atiku’s poor judgment, as his refusal to adhere to zoning principles created a breeding ground for chaos.
Observers from both the APC and PDP are now suggesting that Atiku has brought his toxicity to the ADC. The party’s refusal to adopt zoning is rapidly becoming its Achilles’ heel, allowing Tinubu’s faction to exploit the situation to their advantage. The so-called “Atiku bug” is already manifesting as a crisis within the ADC—mirroring the dysfunction that plagued the PDP.
What began as a promising “Mega-Coalition” to rejuvenate Nigeria’s democracy in 2027 has devolved into a battleground for the party’s very soul, primarily due to Atiku’s unyielding ambition disrupting the zoning dynamics critical for political stability. His entry into the ADC last year, along with his faction of supporters, is perceived by many as a hostile takeover rather than a collaborative effort.
Long-standing ADC members and the “Obidient” faction are alarmed by the overwhelming influence of Atiku’s political apparatus, which threatens to erase the party’s original identity. This affects the public’s perception of the ADC as a viable alternative to challenge President Tinubu. The party is currently in turmoil over leadership issues, with original ADC stakeholders concerned that it risks becoming another PDP—infested with the same crises that have rendered the PDP ineffective.
The reality is stark: the same zoning disputes that devastated the PDP—with Atiku playing a central role—are now threatening to unravel the ADC. We’re already witnessing the emergence of southern discontent mirroring the backlash Atiku faced within the PDP in 2023.
The ADC leadership’s failure to embrace zoning, coupled with Atiku’s insistence on his right to contest the primaries, is proving to be their gravest miscalculation. They are caught in a dilemma where the candidate who might prevail in the primaries lacks the appeal to win the general election due to zoning realities, while the more electable candidate faces uphill battles in the primaries.
Supporters of Peter Obi are adamant that the 2027 election must usher in “New Energy” with a Southern candidate at the helm. With unresolved zoning issues in the ADC, voters from both regions are left perplexed about the party’s essence. The ADC’s recent proclamation that “Zoning is not on the table” has been interpreted by observers as a capitulation to Atiku’s ambitions.
The implications are clear: a Southern backlash is imminent. If the fervent supporters of Peter Obi, the Obidients, believe Atiku is manipulating the system to secure another Northern candidate, the coalition is highly likely to fracture before its national convention.
A serious political party should be focusing on crafting its “Third Way” policy platform in preparation for the upcoming presidential elections, rather than devoting time to defending Atiku’s right to run. All eyes are now on the ADC, as it must navigate this precarious situation to avert a catastrophic implosion caused by its continued support of an unpopular agenda. As an Obidient i insist that whether ADC leaders like it or not a New Nigeria is possible.
*Adejo writes from Kogi state.
