With political parties conclusion of their presidential primaries, which date was later extended by one week by the Independent National Electoral Commission (INEC), Correspondent, MYKE UZENDU, writes that the battle to replace outgoing president, Muhammadu Buhari in 2023 will be a keen one, between PDP’s Atiku Abubakar, APC Bola Tinubu and Labour Party’s Peter Obi
The political battle is getting fiercer, the intrigues becoming more complex and the alliances more unpredictable as political parties devise strategies to outsmart each other to throw up a candidate that will become the successor of President Muhammadu Buhari in 2023.
Former Vice President Atiku Abubakar emerged as the presidential candidate of the Peoples Democratic Party (PDP) while Asiwaju Bola Ahmed Tinubu became the Presidential candidate of the ruling All Progressives Congress (APC), Peter Obi the candidate of Labour Party (LP) and Engr. Rabiu Musa Kwankwaso as Presidential flag bearer of New Nigeria Peoples Party (NNPP).
Aside APC, PDP, NNPP, LP and perhaps SDP, there are strong indications that the other parties might form alliances and engage in some degree to trade-offs so as to confront the others even as some candidates may even step down and work with other parties as witnessed in 2019.
One of factors that will change the political permutations is the choice of running mate. It is generally expected that PDP will beam its search for Vice Presidential candidate on the South while APC as well as LP will go to the North.
PDP will no doubt have a clean sweep of the North East while the North West especially Kano, Jigawa, Katsina and Gombe will be a battle ground for Atiku, Kwankwaso, Tinubu and perhaps Obi if Labour Party is able to get a strong candidate from the zone as his running mate. Obi will also be banking on the vote of Igbo traders in the zone who according to statistics, form the largest race in every state outside the indigenous people.
The North Central will be a free zone but there are expectations that PDP will bounce back in Kwara and Niger states. Depending on how the ruling party is able to manage Gov. Yahaya Bello who is presently angry with Abdullahi Adamu, the National Chairman of APC, Kogi state may be an open battle ground that will harvest from the financial war of the APC and PDP candidates.
Other North Central states will buy into the candidacy of Peter Obi as the zone had always expressed support for a President from the South East.
The President General of the Middle Belt group, Comrade Timothy Hembaor during the inauguration of the National Movement for a Nigeria President of South-East Extraction 2023 held at Cordial Hotel, Enugu State said that the zone has resolved to work with the South East to ensure that it clinches the Presidency in 2023.
“South Easterners have recovered from the Civil War and have risen like the Phoenix and dominated the economy of this country. These are the only people who have spread across the landscape of Nigeria doing business
“It is a mark of their resilience that they are still law-abiding and have invested massively in this country.
“This clearly shows their love for Nigeria and they deserve the top job and we collectively owe them a debt of gratitude. Their business and investment make their case irresistible”.
The South West is a no go area for PDP except Oyo State where they have a serving governor. Ekiti State PDP is still held down by the ‘war’ between former governor Ayo Fayose and his former Deputy Sen. Biodun Olujimi and may not form a formidable force to wedge the incursions of the All Progressives Congress.
Reacting to the situation in Ekiti, a Chieftain of the party in the state who want to remain anonymous said, “Fayose is Tinubu’s boy and worked for Wike during the PDP presidential primary. It is not likely that he will work to deliver Atiku in Ekiti state”.
The level of strategy and diplomacy PDP employs in managing Rivers State governor, Nyesom Wike will determine the fortunes of the party in the South South.
Earlier, after losing the primary election, Wike pledged to work with Atiku to ensure that the party returns to the villa. Wike who said that he will not leave the party because of the loss quickly reminded Atiku of the circumstances that led to his losing the 2019 general election.
He said, “I made a vow to Nigerians that I will support whoever emerges from the P PDP Presidential Primaries and I am not going to go back on my word. We cannot abandon the PDP, I will be fully supporting Atiku Abubakar.”
Though governor Okowa is among the top contenders for the position of the Vice President, it is believed that with the support of Akwa Ibom state governor Gov. Udom Emmanuel, former governors of cross Rivers State Liyel Imoke and Donald Duke and the damages which former National Caretaker Secretary of APC Sen. John Akpan Udo-Edehe who has already defected to NNPP will cause in the zone, the chances of PDP sweeping the South South is brighter.
The South East, Gov. Ugwuanyi of Enugu State is also being considered as a Vice Presidential candidate PDP which may not have serious effect on the popularity of Peter Obi in the State. Ohaneze Ndi has been emphatic on the need to elect the next President from the South East.
Reacting to the emergence of Tinubu as the Presidential candidate of the APC, and collaborating the agitations of South East Presidential aspirants including Dr. Ogbonnaya Onu, Sen. Ken Nnamani and Emeka Nwajiuba during the convention, Ohanaeze Secretary-General, Mazi Okechukwu Isiguzoro, in a statement said the parties and displayed great injustice to the zone and warned that the refusal of the leading political parties to give presidential ticket to the South-East would come with consequences.
“The 2023 Presidential Election shall make or mar Nigeria if the citizens fail to rise above ethno-religious sentiments to ‘take back Nigeria’ from the vicious grip of the kleptomaniac politicians.
“The denial of presidential ticket to the South-East will come with consequences as it will fuel agitations.”
The South East no doubt is the strong hold of Peter Obi who few days to the Presidential Primary abandoned PDP due to the monetization of the process and the hijack of the party structure in the state by Chris Ubah and his cohorts.
Efforts are being intensified of late to ensure that the zone is massively mobilized to get their Permanent Voters Card which has been their greatest albatross.
The Catholic Church which is the largest Christian domination in the zone in which Obi is a member is on the fore front of voter sensitization and PVC registration.
Reacting to the development, Mr Vincent Ezekwueme, National Convener the Movement for the Election of Nigeria President of Igbo Extraction who is championing the need for voters in the South-East to collect their Permanent Voters Cards (PVCs) said, “It is most painful that our political leaders and stakeholders are not doing enough in terms of mobilization, sensitisation and education of our people on the ineluctable needs not only to obtain their PVC cards.
“We call for a change of heart and attitude as the yet unborn children will never forgive us if we failed to do the needful and get it right,” he said.
Obi supporters have hijacked the social media space but whether their deafening online campaign and followership will translate to victory at the polls will be confirmed on the 25th of February, 2023.
The APC will also make a statement in Ebonyi state where Gov. Dave Umahi would want to prove to Sens. Pius Anyim and Sam Egwu that his still controls the voters in the state despite his defection to the ruling party. This may not be the case in Imo State where Gov. Hope Uzodimma and APC factionalized and unpopular but the feud between former governor of the state Emeka Ihedioha and PDP National Secretary, Sen. Sam Anyanwu may give the APC a leeway to give Asiwaju some votes.
A political analyst, Abubakar Dambazzu opined that the 2023 election may come with a twist where regional, ethnic and religious emotions will get prominence.
He said that despite all alignments and clamour for power shift, the North will never forget to line up behind Atiku. “What played out during the PDP convention where Gov. Tambuwal had to step down for Atiku despite his strong bonding and support from Wike may also play out during the general election.
“You should expect that some APC governors and even party officials will work for Atiku. The North wants to always hold onto power even when it does not translate to the development of the region” Danbazzu stated.
According to him a leading candidate may not get all the needed two third votes in the required states to be declared winner of the election.
